This long term chart compares the SPX (orange), US10Y (white) and the Fed's National Activity Index (blue).
Note the extended periods of the NAI which remain below 0 marking recession.
The 10 year yield tends to peak well in advance of the next recession. On a daily basis we see ongoing concern about the 10y-3mo inverted yield curve as an indication of...
Now that everyone expects rate cuts, the inversion won't go away until the rates are actually cut far enough to get this back to positive. Market has 2 rate cuts priced in already for this year, watch out if it doesn't happen.
The spread between the German and US 10-year bond yield seems to have carved out a sideways channel this year. As of now, the channel resistance is seen at 244 basis points.
A break higher would imply resumption of the rise from November lows of 280 basis points. Tighter German-US yield differentials would be positive for EUR/USD.
So, I would look to buy...
Regardless of the fundamentals that are dominating the global economic scene (trade wars), there is an interesting long term, and rather cyclical from the looks of it, pattern developing on the U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield.
The pattern is a declining Head and Shoulders formation on 1W. The last two times that the same pattern emerged (in 2017 and in 2015 -...
Looks like loan officers will be selling 2 and 3 percent fixed mortgages before long. ;)
This is an update to my previous idea:
If you're a fan of Fibonacci, then you're already well aware of the significance of the 1.618 and .618 lines.
If you're not. Here's a super simple...
A few weeks ago we got some nice yield inversion in the US treasury market, just like we did in Canada. I'm thinking the Fed will keep the Federal Funds Rate stable around here before cutting when bad nGDP data comes rolling in.
Watch for signs of an impulsive bounce here in Yields ... we have reached main targets for the ABC corrective sequence and it is profit taking for all shorts. Expect a lot of noise on the political front whilst we build support.
To put simply, there is a lot of congestion around these levels, it will be difficult to break through here on the first test.