During both of the previous bull cycles when the price touched or almost touched the 0.382 level, Bitcoin pulled back considerably and consolidated until the final (and more aggressive) parabolic bull run.
To be more specific:
In 2012 the price declined roughly -50% upon testing the 0.382 Fibonacci and consolidated for 147 days before breaking out to the new parabolic rise.
In 2015 the price declined roughly -40% upon testing the 0.382 Fibonacci and consolidated for 203 days before breaking out to the new parabolic rise. This shows that the decline was by 10% weaker and lasted longer by roughly 50 days.
Based on the above parameters we have to assume that if the 0.382 Fibonacci is rejected, the same sequence will be followed, i.e. weaker decline (by 10%) and longer duration (by 50 days). However we have seen that the current bull cycle has been far more aggressive than the previous one, which leads me to believe that if 0.382 is rejected (possibly on 10k) the duration will follow the opposite sequence i.e. be shorter.
*Notice how the price reaches the 0.382 Fibonacci right after it crosses above the MA50, which instantly becomes a support all the way until the next bear market.
All the above projections are of course at the moment just a guess as BTC has made a very aggressive start to this bull cycle and we as traders should be trading the trend.
Do you think that the 0.382 Fibonacci level will play any part on this bull cycle or not? Let me know in the comments section!
2012 = 0,5 year bear / 1 year recovery to ATH / 1 year bull
2015 = 2 year bear / 1,5 year reco / 1,5 year bull
2019 = 1 year bear? / 0.75 year reco? / 0.75 bull?
For the future of bitcoin it would be much better if the cycles got much longer, the price would be much more stable, like with gold, with 30 year cycles.
the shorter the cycles the worse it is to handle.
Bitcoin needs longer cycles to be usefull as storage of value or transfer of value.